Michael Pettis Sees a Greek Christmas outside the Euro

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Peking University Professor Michael PettisMichael Pettis, who has been confirmed as a speaker at the 65th CFA Institute Annual Conference, is a professor of finance at the Guanghua School at Peking University and chief strategist at Guosen Securities. He also publishes his financial analysis on the China Financial Markets website, and his columns appear in other financial outlets such as Business Insider and Business Spectator.

Although Professor Pettis is based in China, the far-reaching implications of the European financial crisis have caused him to spend a lot of time examining the future of the European Union. In a recent column for Business Insider, he noted that the EU needs “someone foolish enough to lend money to countries that probably won’t repay,” which is a role he feels that China should not assume. “In the end,” he writes, “this is Germany’s crisis to resolve, not China’s.”

Within the EU, Professor Pettis sees a particularly grim fate in store for Greece. In piece for Business Spectator, he noted that “a feedback loop of Greek fear” has resulted in “a very high probability that within weeks, or months at most, Greece will be forced to freeze bank deposits as a prelude to leaving the euro.” Drawing parallels between the current situation and the problems facing Mexico in 1994 and Argentina in 2001, he suggests that Greece may leave the euro as early as the Christmas/New Year holiday season.

Professor Pettis will be examining China’s role in the world economy in greater detail at the 65th CFA Institute Annual Conference in Chicago on 6–9 May 2012. You can register to attend the event to hear more from Professor Pettis in person, and follow this blog for more speaker updates as the conference draws closer.

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